Malls and App Drivers Push Osasco Vote to Flávio Bolsonaro

Workers in Osasco, a suburb of São Paulo, are trading factory jobs for shifts as delivery drivers and mall employees. This economic shift has moved the city's vote from left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro.

Osasco supported Lula in the 2022 election but backed Bolsonaro in this month's first round. Bolsonaro won the national first-round vote, and every candidate to achieve that result since 1989 has gone on to win the presidency. The runoff takes place on Sunday.

Gilberto Almazan, a metalworkers' union leader in Osasco, attributes the change to deindustrialization. He notes that metal, chemical, and textile plants have vanished and been replaced by five shopping malls. Almazan describes the traditional union movement as outdated, saying it is stuck in the Middle Ages.

Many residents now work through apps or as small traders, a trend Almazan calls Uber-isation. These workers often prioritize flexibility over the collective benefits Lula historically offered. Richard Lapper, a biographer of both candidates, argues that Brazil industrialized late and deindustrialized early, intensifying the impact of this shift. He calls Lula a victim of his own success.

Despite record-low unemployment and Brazil's removal from the UN's Hunger Map under Lula's presidency, voters feel financial strain. High prices, household debt, and interest rates have created a crisis of expectations. Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant, blames government mismanagement for heavy taxes. Tairine, a hot dog seller, plans to vote for Bolsonaro, stating that nothing has changed since Lula returned to office.

Flávio Bolsonaro proposes cutting government spending and ministries while keeping some of Lula's welfare programs. He has denied corruption accusations against him. In the first round, 33 million people abstained from voting, the highest number since 1998. Lula's campaign is responding with large street rallies, including one in São Paulo that drew about a million people. Lula, 80, uses social media to counter age-related criticisms, referring to himself as the king of selfies.

In poorer areas like the Maré favela in Rio, Lula retains support. Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother, praises his minimum wage increase and access to free medicines. She worries that Bolsonaro's plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang as a terrorist organization could lead to police raids similar to those in Rio last year that killed more than 130 people. Resident Andreza Dionísio cites last-minute polling station changes and hopelessness about the future as reasons for low turnout.

Evangelical churches, attended by about a quarter of Brazilians, are filling gaps in social services with childcare and food aid. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is under investigation for obstructing Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial, says Flávio Bolsonaro shares the church's values on family and abortion. Almazan fears there will never be another Lula, leaving the president's fate dependent on whether voters believe he can offer a new story.