Iran Conflict Heads for Third Phase as Vote Approaches

Danny Citrinowicz says a renewed war between the United States, Israel, and Iran is almost inevitable once the U.S. midterm elections end on November 3. The Israeli analyst predicts that a third round of fighting will be more destructive than the previous two, potentially targeting Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and internet lines under the Strait of Hormuz.

Citrinowicz, who served as an intelligence official in Israel's military for more than two decades, now works with the Institute for National Security Studies. He told CBC News that President Donald Trump faces only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf. His earlier warning that attacking the Iranian regime would not bring regime change but would draw the region into wider conflict has been confirmed by events.

The United States and Israel have fought Iran in two separate wars over the past 18 months. The first conflict began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear facilities and lasted 12 days. Fighting returned in February after a large U.S. military buildup, starting with Israeli strikes on senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Western NGOs report that more than 7,000 people have died in Iran. Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members have been killed, mostly in strikes on Gulf bases, along with more than 70 Israelis. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.

Since the summer truce collapsed, both sides have largely avoided fresh strikes on bases or territory, but the conflict remains active. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran has targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran of inflating oil prices before the midterms, claiming it was making up fake hits and mines.

A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agrees that vessel attacks are meant to pressure Washington. Iran demands relief from sanctions, reparations for strike damage, the release of billions in frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to restart talks without success.

Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution said the war has likely pushed Iran's leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology. She warned that retaliation could come from proxies like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially targeting soft economic sites such as airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate.

Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in the coming days in a race that could be very close. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. The danger is that political calculation combines with an Iranian development that Netanyahu may inflate, producing an unnecessary attack.

Sadjadpour argued that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. In this view, Iran would compromise only under existential economic pressure paired with a clear, limited diplomatic exit. If you are asking them to change their identity, that is not going to succeed, Sadjadpour said.