Polling shows four tight Senate races

Voters in four key states face a choice between candidates whose support levels fall within statistical error margins, according to new data. The results, released by CNN on October 29, indicate that the final control of the U.S. Senate may hinge on these specific contests. Democrats need to secure 51 seats to maintain a majority without relying on the vice presidential tiebreaker. They are currently projected to win the House and need to flip four Senate seats from Republican control to achieve that 51-seat threshold.

In Maine, former state Senate President Troy Jackson holds a slight edge over incumbent Senator Susan Collins. The poll shows 49% of respondents favor Jackson, while 45% support Collins. At least 12.5% of voters indicated they could still change their minds. Collins, the only Republican incumbent in a state that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, is viewed as independent of her party. Forty-six percent of respondents believe she would prioritize constituents over the Republican Party. Three-quarters of voters said their choice was motivated more by Collins than by Jackson.

Abdul El-Sayed is building a lead in Michigan over former Representative Mike Rogers. El-Sayed received 49% of the vote in the new poll, compared to 42% for Rogers. This represents an increase from a previous poll in early September, where El-Sayed had 47% and Rogers had 44%. Ninety-five percent of likely Democratic voters now support El-Sayed, up from 90% in September. Conversely, 57% of Rogers supporters are voting against the Democrat rather than for the Republican. Rogers' favorability rating dropped from 58% in September to 50% in October.

Texas State Representative James Talarico maintains a lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton. Talarico is favored by 49% of likely voters, while Paxton has 43% support. This lead persists despite Talarico's absence from the campaign trail in early October. Talarico has strong support among voters of color, with 64% backing him. This includes 22% of that demographic who voted for Donald Trump in 2024. Within their own parties, Talarico faces only 2% unfavorable views from Democrats, while 24% of Republicans view Paxton unfavorably.

In Kansas, Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton leads incumbent Senator Roger Marshall. Hamilton has 49% support, compared to 45% for Marshall. This occurs in a state where Donald Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024. Hamilton, a Christian pastor, outperforms his party's general favorability. Fifty-seven percent of voters view the Democratic Party unfavorably, but only 38% feel the same about Hamilton. Approximately 12% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters support Hamilton. Fifty-nine percent of Hamilton backers cited opposition to Marshall as their primary motivation.

CNN conducted telephone polling between October 20 and October 27. The survey randomly sampled registered voters. The sample sizes were 838 in Kansas, 783 in Maine, 768 in Michigan, and 923 in Texas. The margins of sampling error were plus or minus 4.5% for Kansas and Maine, 4.7% for Michigan, and 4.2% for Texas. Fox News Digital contacted all eight campaigns for comment.