21 US Military Personnel Killed Since February War, Driving New Diplomatic Cuts

Twenty-one US military personnel have been killed in the Middle East since the conflict began on February 28, a toll that now underscores the severity of the new intelligence warnings. These losses have put American staff in the region on high alert as the White House and State Department move to adjust their posture. The core of the latest development is a determination that threats to US citizens in the Middle East are now at their highest level since the war started. This assessment follows reports that the United States and Israel may be preparing a new military campaign after next month's mid-term elections. President Donald Trump acknowledged this possibility on Friday, stating the US may do another little epic fury using the codename for the current war.

Internal communications confirm that US intelligence agencies believe Iran is in the advanced stages of planning attacks on US personnel abroad. Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton sent a memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that agencies have gathered evidence showing Iran has substantially increased its efforts to target Americans overseas. The memo indicates that lethal plots are reaching advanced stages in the Middle East and other countries. While Washington has not commented publicly on the memo, one official confirmed its authenticity to The New York Times. However, another official noted that Iran may lack the capacity to follow through on all of its ambitions.

The State Department responded to this heightened threat environment by announcing the removal of non-essential staff from its embassy in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday. This decision was driven by escalating attacks on Saudi infrastructure by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Other US media outlets have reported quiet staff reductions at missions in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Lebanon. A US official told The Times that both Houthi attacks and Iranian terror plots targeting US officials were primary factors in these decisions. This represents a significant shift in diplomatic presence, reflecting a move to minimize exposure during a volatile period.

Iran has not yet responded to the specific memo, though its officials have repeatedly threatened and carried out attacks on US bases and those of its allies in the region. On Wednesday, Revolutionary Guard spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said Tehran would adopt a new offensive strategy if the US renewed attacks. He added that Iran would no longer limit itself to retaliation and that the quality, range, and power of Iranian missiles had improved. This signals a potential shift in tactical approach should hostilities resume.

Further details on Iran's potential targets emerged from reports citing two senior Iranian security officials. They stated that Tehran has detailed plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf if new US-Israeli attacks occur. Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei warned that cables, data centers, and artificial intelligence facilities across the region could also be hit if the war resumes. These targets suggest a focus on critical infrastructure that supports both military and civilian operations in the area.

US authorities have long accused Iran of plotting against Americans, establishing a pattern of threats that extends beyond the current conflict. In March, a US court convicted a Pakistani national of plotting to assassinate President Trump and other politicians on the orders of the Revolutionary Guard. In 2022, a Guard member was charged with trying to arrange the killing of former national security adviser John Bolton by offering money to people in the US to carry it out. Last year, the US intelligence community assessed that Iran would continue to directly threaten US persons globally, especially those involved in the 2020 killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.

Recent security incidents have also impacted US assets outside the Middle East. This month, the US abruptly pulled bombers from an airbase in England over fears of a possible attack. This move followed a security incident at the base, after which UK authorities arrested several men on suspicion of working with Iranian intelligence. These developments highlight the global reach of the perceived threat and the measures being taken to protect US personnel worldwide.