Israeli Election: Likud Leads But Lacks Majority

The Arab parties to Israel’s parliament nearly doubled their representation on Tuesday, winning 19 seats in the Knesset. This surge in seats creates a mathematical hurdle for both major political blocs, as neither side has agreed to include Arab-led parties in their governing coalitions.

With more than 80% of the vote counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party remains the largest single entity. His right-wing bloc is projected to hold 53 seats. That total is eight seats short of the 61 required to form a stable government. The drop in support represents a sharp decline from the party’s current representation, though Likud still leads the field.

Gadi Eisenkot, the centrist leader of the opposition bloc, claimed victory in the early hours of Wednesday. He stated that the public had rejected Netanyahu and voted for change. However, his bloc’s seat count fell from an early lead of 48 seats to a lower figure as real results were tallied. Eisenkot’s coalition, known as the change bloc, includes his Yashar party, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, and Yair Golan’s Democrats.

Eisenkot argued that the high voter turnout made a second election undesirable. He cited a 77.7% participation rate, the highest since 1999. Bennett confirmed that parties within the change bloc were already coordinating. He said the groups were working to establish a Zionist serving government and declared that Netanyahu lost the election.

Netanyahu urged caution, stating that final results would take up to 48 hours to arrive. He insisted that Likud is the biggest party in the state and called for a strong, right-wing national government. He warned against endangering Israel by relying on anti-Zionist Arab parties. The Prime Minister also credited Donald Trump for addressing the Iranian threat and described Israel as stronger than it has ever been.

Mansour Abbas, head of the Ra’am party, told Channel 12 that he was interested in joining Eisenkot’s bloc. He noted that he was speaking with officials from both sides. Yousef Jabareen, chairman of the Joint List, called the vote historic. He said the public gave the Arab parties a clear vote of confidence and demanded that the government responsible for the bloodshed leave office.

Professor Jonathan Rynhold of Bar-Ilan University noted that Netanyahu performed better than pre-election polls predicted. Rynhold said that Netanyahu cannibalized his own bloc by shifting voters away from other right-wing parties. He concluded that unless there is a massive change, Netanyahu does not have a government. Rynhold also warned that if the opposition sticks to its rule against including Arab parties, a second election is likely.

Yair Golan of the Democrats party said the change bloc had won. He stated that the Israeli public fired Netanyahu and that the new government must be formed quickly. Lapid, Bennett’s partner, described the Netanyahu bloc’s result as a crushing defeat. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich of the Religious Zionist party suggested the results were not final. He said the bloc was waiting for the soldiers’ votes and predicted growth in their seat count.

Gideon Rahat of the Israel Democracy Institute identified the large turnout of Arab voters as the day's biggest surprise. He suggested that constant incitement by government figures, such as Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, motivated the high participation. Rahat noted that some view the turnout as a Zionist victory, showing that Arab citizens are taking part in the state rather than staying home.