Musk Rejects 22-Flight Lunar Fuel Plan

Elon Musk disputes a recent NASA safety panel estimate of 22 Starship launches needed to refuel a lunar lander.

The conflict surfaced during a quarterly public meeting of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel on Thursday. Panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, identified the fueling of the SpaceX lunar lander as a major risk for Artemis IV. Precourt stated, "We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander." He added, "I think the last estimate is around 22 flights."

Ars Technica reporter Eric Berger shared Precourt's remarks on X. Musk replied, "That's way too high." He continued, "Actual number will be more like 6 to 8."

The disagreement centers on the limitations of the Starship vehicle. The rocket consumes nearly all its propellant to reach Earth orbit. It cannot travel to the Moon without being refilled in space. SpaceX plans to use an orbital fuel station. A Starship configured as a storage tank, called a depot, launches first. Tanker Starships then fly one at a time to dock and transfer propellant. Once the depot is full, the lunar lander launches, docks, fills its tanks, and departs for the Moon.

Each tanker flight is a full rocket launch. The total number of launches affects cost, timeline, and safety. Berger noted that even with two Starship launches per week by the end of 2027, filling a depot with 22 flights would take about three months. The required count depends on propellant delivery capacity and losses. Starship fuel is kept at extremely low temperatures. Some propellant boils off while waiting in orbit and during transfers. NASA's estimate appears to be based on current Starship capabilities. Musk's lower range assumes a more capable vehicle.

Musk has previously contested higher launch counts. In 2021, a government document suggested 16 launches. Musk called that figure "extremely unlikely" and said eight tankers would be the maximum. Much of the answer depends on hardware SpaceX has not yet fully flown. The company plans to conduct refueling with its upgraded V3 Starship. Precourt noted that Artemis IV carries a "large number of firsts." He also commended NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman's team for removing obstacles for both SpaceX and Blue Origin. Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander does not depend on orbital refueling for its first mission.

The next step involves SpaceX demonstrating refueling with the V3 Starship. The panel will continue to monitor the mission's risks. The 2028 launch window for Artemis IV remains the target date for the crewed lunar landing.