36 Governor Races: 18 to 18 Split, 9 Battlegrounds, and 19 Open Seats
Democrats seek a majority they have not held since 2010 as voters weigh cost of living and war against Republican funding advantages and new district maps.
By Hugo Khalil ·
Voters across thirty-six states are deciding the balance of power in statehouses on a day that also determines control of Congress. The Associated Press describes the midterm election as a referendum on President Donald Trump's second term, noting that voters are struggling with high prices and angry over an unpopular war with Iran. According to AP-NORC polling, thirty-five percent of U.S. adults approve of Trump's job performance, while about seven in ten say the country is heading in the wrong direction. Most respondents blame the president for high prices, a sentiment that is likely shaping decisions in governor races where local economic conditions are a primary concern.
Ballotpedia reports that Republicans hold twenty-six governorships and Democrats hold twenty-four, with each party holding eighteen of the offices currently on the ballot. Democrats need a net gain of two governorships to claim a nationwide majority, a position they have not held since 2019. Nineteen of these races feature no incumbent on the ballot, creating open contests that often swing more easily than those with a sitting governor. Fifteen governors are term-limited, while Iowa's Kim Reynolds, Minnesota's Tim Walz, and Wisconsin's Tony Evers chose not to run. Rhode Island's Daniel McKee lost his primary, further opening the field for challengers to establish their own narratives without the baggage of incumbency.
Nine states are identified as battlegrounds for governor, including Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Democrats are defending five governorships in states that Trump won in 2024, specifically Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In Arizona, Katie Hobbs faces a challenge in a state that has leaned Republican in recent presidential cycles. In Michigan, Josh Shapiro attempts to hold his seat in a key Rust Belt state where economic anxiety is high. Republicans are defending two governorships in states that Harris won, New Hampshire and Vermont, where Democratic voter engagement could push the balance further toward the left.
Specific matchups are drawing national attention due to the high profile of the candidates. In Georgia, Republican health care executive Rick Jackson faces Democratic former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms to succeed Brian Kemp. In Nevada, Republican Governor Joe Lombardo is running against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. The Associated Press notes that the AP calls Texas, Florida, and Iowa competitive governor races, suggesting that while the nine listed battlegrounds are the core focus, other states may swing based on turnout and local issues. In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is running against Democrat Amy Acton, with Ramaswamy's campaign facing backlash over an ad featuring Acton's estranged mother.
Financial disparities between the parties present a significant hurdle for Democrats. The 2026 elections are likely to be the most expensive in history, with Republican committees outraising and outspending Democratic committees, helped by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. However, at the candidate level, Democrats have outraised their opponents. AP analysis of AdImpact data shows that 88.1 percent of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts Trump won in 2024, including more than $850 million where he won by ten points or more. This concentration of funds suggests that Republicans are prioritizing defense in their strongest areas, while Democrats are focusing their limited resources on the few races where they can realistically flip a seat.
Redistricting adds another layer of complexity to the governor races. Six states are using new congressional maps after mid-decade redistricting, including California, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Ohio is also using a new map. While these maps primarily affect congressional seats, they often influence the political landscape of statewide races by shifting the demographic makeup of districts and potentially altering voter behavior. Republicans tried to beat the midterm pattern, where a president's party almost always loses seats, with redistricting, but new districts in Florida and elsewhere may not vote as drawn, creating uncertainty for both parties.
The mood among voters is characterized by a mix of frustration and hope for change. DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene stated that the American people are angry and want change, a sentiment echoed by voter James Moore, a librarian in Raleigh, North Carolina, who said he is paying more taxes and more for his healthcare. Conversely, RNC Chairman Joe Gruters emphasized that everything depends on turnout, asserting that if Republicans turn out their voters, they win. This tension between the desire for change and the mobilization of the base is evident in the high early vote numbers, with more than 57 million people having already voted as of Monday, surpassing the early vote of four years ago in many closely watched states.
Democrats are cautiously optimistic about their chances in the governor races, hoping to hold a majority for the first time in two decades. A strong performance in these races would boost potential 2028 candidates like Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg, while complicating the path for Vice President JD Vance. If Democrats win even one chamber of Congress, investigations and possible impeachment proceedings become likely, with House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries outlining a 100-day agenda on the cost of living and oversight. The governor races serve as a barometer for this broader momentum, as control of statehouses can influence policy areas such as healthcare and education, which are central to the Democratic platform.
The administration's involvement in election administration has also raised concerns among Democrats. A federal judge temporarily barred the Trump administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting, while another judge ordered the administration to stop demanding that California election officials segregate ballots cast by people on its lists of suspected noncitizens. The U.S. Postal Service added hours, staff, and special lines to ensure mail ballots are counted on time. These administrative measures, along with Trump's continued claims about voting fraud, have fueled fears of interference and intimidation, particularly as the Justice Department threatens to prosecute local election officials. Voters are casting their ballots in a climate of heightened scrutiny and debate over the integrity of the process.
