James Robson and London's dining elite pivot to the Gulf amid UK tax pressure

London's culinary elite is quietly shifting its focus to the Middle East, with several top-tier venues opening branches in the Gulf to escape what one owner calls a tax tsunami.

The trend gained momentum after Fallow, a St James's Market favorite serving 1,000 guests daily, signed a deal for a regional outpost. The restaurant built its reputation through social media presence and signature dishes like a whole cod's head in spicy butter. It joins a growing list of established London names that have already made the leap, including Scott's of Mayfair, the two Michelin-starred Gymkhana, and Park Chinois. Even the bakery Bread Ahead and the political favorite Isabel's have opened locations in Dubai and Abu Dhabi respectively.

This expansion persists despite recent geopolitical instability. The US-Israeli war in Iran earlier this year caused bombardment in Dubai and triggered an exodus of expats. Some venues, like Dinner by Heston, remain closed due to the conflict's aftermath. The Michelin guide also faced criticism this month for listing 16 closed restaurants, a mix-up likely caused by inspections conducted before the war began.

James Robson, co-owner of Fallow, spoke from Hong Kong about his broader strategy. He identified East Asia, the United States, and the Gulf as primary growth areas. Robson noted that America champions business, the Gulf actively assists enterprises, and East Asia offers a work ethic and tax system that highlights the UK's shortcomings.

The central grievance is the 20% hospitality VAT, one of the highest rates in Europe where the average is roughly 12%. Italy, for instance, charges only 10% on restaurant food. Chefs are urging Chancellor Andy Burnham to reduce this rate in next week's budget. Robson argued that the UK has sleepwalked into multiple anti-growth taxations over the last two budgets. He cited the 25% corporation tax and dividend rates of 40% or more, calling for VAT to align closer with European standards.

Michelin-starred chef Jason Atherton now spends a third of his time at his Dubai restaurant, noting that profitability is easier there than in London. Robson maintains that while he is proud to contribute to the national deficit, the current UK risk and reward balance is no longer sensible. He is therefore playing it safe domestically while focusing energy on overseas expansion.

Human rights groups are urging caution. Felix Jakens, director of campaigns for Amnesty International UK, pointed to the UAE's poor record on worker protections. He noted that migrant workers, who form the majority of the population, remain tied to employers through a sponsorship system that can lead to abuse and prevents them from forming trade unions. Jakens emphasized that heavy spending on the UK image, such as through Manchester City, should not mask labor issues. He called for proper human rights due diligence to ensure kitchen staff are treated fairly, paid properly, and can raise concerns without fearing loss of their jobs or visas.